Final Four Preview: Villanova vs. Oklahoma
The #2 seed from the south region will play the #2 seed from the west region when Villanova take on Oklahoma on Saturday night in game one of the Final Four doubleheader. After year after year if first weekend futility, Villanova have made it back to the Final Four for the first time since 2009. The Sooners are in the Final Four for the first time since 2002, as head coach Lon Kruger has completed a very impressive turnaround for the program in his 4th year in Norman.
Villanova went 29-5 in the regular season and 16-2 in ACC play. They started their journey to Houston in Brooklyn, and promptly blew out both of their first weekend opponents. They took out #15 seed UNC-Asheville 86-56, and used a first half blitzkrieg on #7 seed Iowa to knock them out of the tournament in round two. Being in the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2009, Jay Wright’s team continued to play on. Three-point shooting was the key to their sweet 16 win over Miami, as the Wildcats went 10/15 from beyond the arc in Louisville.
In the elite eight they came up against the #1 overall seed in the tournament in Kansas, a team who had also coasted their way through the first three rounds. The game was as you would expect very tight, but Villanova played stifling defense down the stretch to win 64-59.
Oklahoma by virtue of having such a great regular season got their tournament started in Oklahoma City, just 20 miles from their campus. They had a small first round wobble against #15 Cal St. Bakersfield, but pulled away to an 82-68 win. In the second round they played VCU, and again had a much tighter game than expected, but hung on for the 85-81 win.
In the sweet 16 they played Texas A&M, who had burned themselves out beating Northern Iowa in double overtime the round before that to get to Anaheim. Fatigue was a huge factor, and it helped Oklahoma get a 19-point halftime lead and they never looked back.
It was all about Buddy Hield in the elite eight. Many people think Hield is the best player in the country, and I wholeheartedly agree. Hield dropped 37 points on the Oregon Ducks in the elite eight, and punched Oklahoma’s ticket to the Final Four.
As for this game, I see shooting being the key. You already know about what Buddy Hield can do, but Villanova have some sharp shooters too. The Wildcats have five players that shoot about 35% from three. The headline act of that group is Ryan Arcidiacono, the undisputed leader of the team.
The shooting does help them, but Villanova are here because of their defense. They haven’t given up 75 points in one game since February 27th, a run of nine straight games holding opponents under 75. They forced 16 turnovers against Kansas in the elite eight, and held the very talented Jayhawks to 59 points. Kansas shot 46% overall and 27% from three, two unheard of marks from the #1 seed. They’ve forced 55 turnovers in their four tournament games.
Even beyond that, their game is altering shots. The small things help them win. From there they can get out in transition, with talented freshman guard Jalen Brunson leading the way a lot of times. He can either go to the rim or kick it out to one of those five 35%+ three-point shooters.
For Oklahoma they are just going to put up threes. They went 12/24 against Oregon, and 11/25 against Texas A&M. They’ve shot at least 20 threes in all four tournament games. When Buddy Hield isn’t putting up the shots, it will be Isaiah Cousins or Jordan Woodard. Those two plus Hield make a triple threat of shooters that is very hard for other teams to deal with.
This game is fascinating. Oklahoma like to pass the ball around the outside, or go in and kick it outside for threes. What Villanova are really good at is taking up the air space of players, and most of all getting in the passing lanes. If Villanova fan funnel this game towards the post they will win. If it just becomes a straight out shootout Oklahoma will win it. Oklahoma have to move the ball around, and most of all make their shots.
What plays to Villanova’s advantage is that they are playing in Houston. The last two times the NCAA Tournament has been played at NRG Stadium, a 2015 regional and the 2011 Final Four, the shooting percentages were historically low. Of the six NCAA Tournament games played at NRG Stadium since 2011, the three-point shooting percentage is 27.6%. If a team shot that this season, that would be good for fourth worst in the entire NCAA.
I’m not sure how that plays into this, but since Oklahoma’s entire game is predicated on shooting threes, I’ll give the edge to Villanova. Combine Villanova’s strong defense with whatever is messed up with the rims in Houston, and I’ll take Villanova to march on to the National Championship.
Prediction: Villanova 66 Oklahoma 62