The Chicago Bulls offseason has doomed the franchise
Coming into the offseason, the Bulls were largely expected to rebuild their franchise after a couple of years of being stuck in the mud in the increasingly competitive Eastern Conference. Jimmy Butler was expected to be traded to one of Minnesota or Boston and they were expected to receive a young player to build around. This never happened and whilst this isn’t necessarily an issue, the subsequent moves they have made make very little sense. Building around Butler and trying to win now is crazy enough, but they have surrounded him with players who are also not blessed at shooting the three-pointer. This means the offence will have a lack of floor spacing which makes it difficult for Hoiberg to construct a system that includes any kind of ball movement. Even if you ignore the tactical side of Basketball, the moves have left the Bulls with a vague and uninspiring future, these moves will hurt them for a long time.
The one move that made sense was moving Derrick Rose as his play has completely declined since 2012, his win shares per 48 have declined from 2.11 all the way down to 0.03 which is a drastic drop. To put this into perspective, of the 58 point guards who played over 1000 minutes, only Norris Cole. D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay ranked below him. Two of these are rookies so they deserve a fair amount of leeway and Norris Cole has never been near the level people think Derrick Rose is at. The Bulls were four points better off per 100 possessions when he was on the bench and he didn’t look like a natural fit alongside Jimmy Butler despite what Butler himself said.
Moving Rose looked like the start of a positive offseason for Chicago, they got the promising Jerian Grant and the underrated Robin Lopez in exchange for his monster contract. Lopez would have been a good fit in a Fred Hoiberg offence as he fitted so well in Terry Stotts’ five out offence in Portland, but the moves made since have completely eroded the positive nature of the first trade.
Rajon Rondo did get a lot of assists last year, but this was mostly down to George Karl’s system. His up-tempo inside-out system is renowned for getting point guards a lot of assists because of the easy transition buckets it brings. Accusing Rondo of stuffing his own stats is probably a bit far, but he wasn’t that good last year when you delve into the advanced stats. His defence appeared lazy and the Kings were better when he was off the court by two points per 100 possessions. He didn’t care about the team, he appeared to only care about his own stat line and earning himself a big payday for the upcoming season. The Bulls have foolishly given him this and as Kelly Scalletta of Today’s Fastbreak put it- Rondo’s stats are ‘hollow stats’ because he can’t actually run an offence properly. He often passes up an easy lay up to his team mate just so he can get the assist on his stat line.
He has good individual success, there is no doubt about that, he even shot 36.5% from downtown which is a career high. But the key issue is that he does not have the mentality to be able to transform his individual success into success for the whole team. The Kings were better with Darren Collison on the floor largely because he kept the ball moving and made unselfish decisions for the good of the whole team.
One of the biggest question marks is over the kind of system coach Hoiberg will be able to implement with this new back court of Wade, Rondo and Butler. None of them are particularly good three point shooters, Rondo led the trio with 36.5% which is both an anomaly and a rather horrifying statistic for Bulls fans to stomach. None of them are particularly fast in transition either, Butler ranked in the 43rd percentile in transition, Wade ranked in the 35th percentile and Rondo managed to find himself in the THIRD percentile- a truly horrific placing. This team will have to be purely a half court team as they don’t even have any real athleticism in their front court. Niko Mirotic is a cultured stretch four and Robin Lopez isn’t someone who can exactly spring out in front of the guards in transition.
Even in a half court offence, their options are still limited. They don’t have the floor spacing to run a drive and dish offence similar to what the Cavaliers run and they don’t have the post presence to be able to roll with a grit and grind style offence. They will likely be at the top of the isolation usage tables at the end of next season as they don’t have any other choice. Wade and Butler both ranked in the top 30 for isolation usage last season and these numbers will probably increase as they have both lost their effective pick and roll backcourt partners.
Not only will the new offence be depressing for Bulls fans to have to endure, but it means that last summers coaching overhaul was all for nothing. Ironically, Tom Thibodeau would have been a good coach for the likes of Rondo and Wade as he would demand they play defence and he doesn’t have a fixed set of offensive principles in the way Fred Hoiberg does. Hoiberg was brought to the franchise to modernise the offence and make the atmosphere a more relaxed place. However by bringing in Rajon Rondo, this end goal is now impossible as the words ‘rondo’ and ‘relaxed’ do not belong in the same sentence. He is a stubborn player who has clashed with both George Karl and Rick Carlisle in recent times, you can see a perfect example of his toxic, disrespectful and negative attitude in the video below.
YouTube: Rajon Rondo & Rick Carlisle Exchange Words | February 24, 2015 | NBA 2014-15 Season
Fred Hoiberg has a specific system that he was brought to Chicago to run, but that is now not possible with the new additions. Although he is flexible, his key principles are pace and space and a lot of off the ball movement. Jimmy Butler should be the dominant ball handler on this team but Wade and Rondo have also been the dominant ball handler at their most recent teams. Wade was 8th in usage in the whole NBA, Butler was 43rd and Rondo was 101st. These metrics do not show Rondo as much of a dominant ball handler, but when he didn’t have the ball he didn’t make any off the ball cuts or provide any kind of motion, he appeared to stand still and demand the ball from DeMarcus Cousins or Rudy Gay. Hoiberg’s Iowa State system utilised quick pace and a point forward, this is no longer possible. Not only is this disappointing for Hoiberg, but it shows that the Bulls front office simply don’t know what they are doing. Hoiberg was brought in to achieve one goal, but they have sold him a complete lie and made it impossible for him to achieve anything. He is a smart offensive mind, and they have now forced him to boil his system down into a ‘your turn my turn’ isolation offence.
The Bulls Front Office have totally contradicted themselves and the biggest loser in the entire situation is Fred Hoiberg, it’s unlikely he lasts the season as the locker room will probably spiral into complete chaos. Gar Forman has essentially shown Fred Hoiberg with the transactions he has made that he doesn’t understand systems or basketball in general. It is extremely worrying that Forman has auctioned their future to win-now with a roster that simply doesn’t fit together.
When Forman sat down for his post-offseason press conference, fans across Chicago were curious to see how he would defend his acquisitions. Many were left gobsmacked by his quotes which showed just how out of touch with the modern game he is. He told reporters that the goal at the start of the offseason was to ‘retool’ the roster by getting ‘younger and more athletic’. These aims make sense as a rebuild wasn’t a complete necessity, but Forman then went on to say that the front office had ‘accomplished those things’. To some extent he is correct, the additions of Jerian Grant and Denzel Valentine have made the roster young, athletic and versatile. In reality, they won’t play a huge role for a good couple of years, which make his comments look silly. Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo are neither young nor athletic and they are simply in the way of the young players who would develop well in Fred Hoiberg’s motion offence. Forman has had a really poor off-season after making a positive start with the Derrick Rose trade, he has shown that he is incompetent at the top level and he has thrown his Head Coach under the bus in the process.
A key point that is being overlooked is that it is actually perfectly fine for the Bulls to want to win now. They have a star player in Jimmy Butler and there is nothing wrong with them trying to compete in a pretty weak Eastern Conference. The issue is that they have targeted the wrong free agents if they want to win now. I have doubts over whether Dwyane Wade is a better fit alongside Jimmy Butler than someone like Evan Fournier, Allen Crabbe or Courtney Lee. Butler clearly needs a guy who is happy to play off the ball, yet Forman has surrounded him with two dominant ball handlers. This has put the entire franchise under a dark cloud of uncertainty, it could be a long couple of years for the loyal Bulls fanbase.